Bay Area Economics

Smart Growth Strategy for the Bay Area
Association of Bay Area Governments & Bay Area Alliance for Sustainability, CA
BAE served as the economic consultant for the Bay Area Smart Growth Strategy consultant team. Using a consensus-building regional planning approach, the process included public workshops in each of the nine Bay Area counties to explore a more compact land use pattern. Both PLACES³ and EZRA (a BAE-developed model) were used to evaluate compact development schemes in real time, so that workshop participants could view the results of their input as planning was accomplished. BAE also analyzed the "fit" of envisioned development on-the-ground on vacant and underutilized parcels, pioneered analysis of jobs-housing match for each county, and generated forecasts of population and employment which were incorporated into land use and transportation models used by regional agencies. This project received a Charter Award from the Congress for New Urbanism (2003).

Regional Housing Toolkit
King County Growth Management Planning Council, WA
BAE worked with the regional planning organization responsible for implementing the State’s Growth Management Act in Seattle and surrounding cities. The Regional Housing Toolkit is an initiative to promote market-rate and affordable housing development within urban areas through the use of customized "tools," several of which were developed by BAE. To kick off this project, BAE facilitated sub-regional citizen focus groups, which played a gaming exercise designed by BAE to elicit objections to aspects of new housing development. BAE then researched and wrote a "Best Practices" guide to housing implementation, and presented recommendations to the Planning Council. BAE prepared a series of financial models to explore incentive-based housing programs such as the voluntary inclusion of affordable housing, density bonuses, and reduced parking requirements. The Toolkit has been distributed to all jurisdictions within King County.

Florida Statewide Housing Infill Study
Florida Housing Finance Corporation, FL
BAE conducted a major study of infill housing to assist the Corporation with targeting its affordable housing funds in order to revitalize central cities and promote sustainable development. Phase I of the Study tested demographic and land use criteria to identify potential infill target areas in 28 cities using a GIS approach, and also profiled all infill programs active throughout the state. Phase II addressed marketability of infill housing in Tampa, Orlando, Miami, Gainesville, and Panama City.

Reno Residential Infill Study
City of Reno, NV
This project analyzed potential residential infill sites for a large portion of urbanized Reno to encourage maximum utilization of available land supply. Using GIS, BAE mapped all vacant and underutilized sites, assessed the market for market-rate and affordable products, defined target markets that could be attracted to infill projects, selected prototype sites, developed project concepts for each illustrative site, and conducted financial analysis of the prototypes to explore opportunities and barriers to private sector development in central Reno. The Study concluded with a series of recommendations to amend land use regulations and promote infill housing to developers and lenders.

San Jose Housing Initiative Study
City of San Jose Planning Department, CA
This study evaluated the feasibility of developing high-density housing along transit corridors in San Jose. Working with an architect, BAE assessed 75 sites for suitability as high-density housing locations, prepared a full market study, analyzed the financial feasibility of seven prototype projects, and organized two developer workshops. We also had ongoing interaction with a Task Force composed of City Council members and Department heads. This project received the 1991 Planning Advocacy Award from the American Planning Association, Northern California Section, and has stimulated development of several innovative housing projects.

Coyote Valley Vision Plan
Greenbelt Alliance, CA
As part of a multidisciplinary team, BAE provided urban economics analysis to prepare this vision for a large undeveloped portion of San Jose. Coyote Valley, long held in reserve by the City to serve San Jose’s future employment growth needs, contains highly valued open space and agricultural uses. Greenbelt Alliance, dedicated to creating a vision for the Valley that can accommodate planned growth in accordance with New Urbanist principles, commissioned a team of consultants to prepare a vision plan that also preserves open space, views, and environmental resources. BAE conducted a jobs-housing match analysis, leading to recommendations for enhanced housing programs that will allow people to live and work in the same location. BAE also prepared policy statements and provided examples of national best practices to encourage a full array of community facilities and promote green building.

Oregon Housing Cost Study
Committee to Study Housing Affordability, OR
A statewide task force commissioned this study to document and analyze the factors leading to rapid housing price increases in Oregon. BAE worked with a diverse array of housing industry leaders including representatives from the Governor’s Office, METRO, the building industry, realtors, lenders, and affordable housing advocates. The Study included long-term trends analysis of demographic variables, comparison to other U.S. regions, case studies of subdivision construction costs, and a review of changes in the regulatory framework affecting housing costs. The Oregon Housing Cost Study was also presented to the Congress for New Urbanism.

Boise Regional Growth Conference
Treasure Valley Institute, ID
BAE organized this ground-breaking event, bringing together the mayors of the region’s major cities to discuss regional growth management. Using an organizational model that blends education and collaboration, BAE facilitated a panel of national experts in growth management and regional development to brief local officials on growth issues and ways to collaborate to improve the quality of life and governance in the region. The Conference resulted in an innovative regional Partnership Agreement and subsequent regional planning initiatives.

Economic Analysis of Growth Control Ordinance
City of Fairfield, CA
BAE conducted a fiscal and economic impact analysis of a proposed Urban Growth Boundary ordinance that would have amended the existing boundary to exclude large tracts of undeveloped residential and commercial properties. The analysis explored the impact of the proposed ordinance on the supply of available land to accommodate new development, the type of development that might be discouraged from locating to the City, the impact on development fee revenues of limiting growth, the subsequent ability to finance capital improvements, and the impact on property values and affordable housing supply.

San Jose Construction Debris Recycling Fee
City of San Jose, CA
For this innovative waste-reduction initiative, BAE analyzed the feasibility of program implementation and structured the fee program. San Jose, with substantial new development and construction during the past decade, sought to implement a rebate fee that encourages recycling of construction debris to reduce the waste stream. BAE estimated the volume of construction debris by type of material, tracked the capacity of recyclers to absorb the debris, and structured a fee program that would limit financial impact while simultaneously encourage recycling. This fee program was supported by building associations and developers, and was unanimously adopted by the City Council in 2001.

Napa County Housing and Growth Management Elements Update
County of Napa, CA
BAE served as the economics consultant for the preparation of the Napa County Housing Element Update and Growth Management Element of the General Plan. This project involved a comprehensive housing needs assessment, economic feasibility analysis for a proposed General Plan Amendment to provide sites to meet the County’s projected new housing needs, and an analysis of Growth Management program impacts. BAE also assisted County staff in the preparation of a comprehensive set of Housing Element policies and programs to address local, regional, and state housing objectives in the challenging setting of a rapidly growing county with high housing costs, constrained developable lands, and limited public funding for housing development.

Livermore Vision Project
City of Livermore, CA
The City of Livermore, facing intensive debate surrounding its plans to annex land and developed substantial new housing, initiated the Vision Project to bring consensus to the community regarding future growth. BAE, as economics consultant to the Vision Project, administered and analyzed a 100 percent citywide survey of resident households; researched case studies of smart growth practices throughout the U.S.; conducted in-depth market studies of downtown, infill housing, and business parks; and analyzed citizen-created alternative development visions. This major effort attracted more than 400 residents to community workshops, resulting in a Vision that will lead to a major overhaul of the City’s General Plan.

Vineyard Residential Development Alternatives
City of Pleasanton, CA
In order to preserve open space and encourage agriculture, the Vineyard Avenue area of Pleasanton is planned as low-density vineyard estates. BAE tested the financial feasibility of several density alternatives designed to encourage vineyard/residential development, to determine whether the necessary infrastructure costs were justified by underlying land values. Work included market analysis of vineyard estates and working vineyards, luxury subdivision lots, and luxury homes.

Development Strategy for Bio-Tech Neighborhood
City of Seattle, WA
The City of Seattle engaged BAE to identify workable public actions to create a livable "in-town" neighborhood in the South Lake Union area. A consortium of private developers has been formed to redevelop this older area, strategically located between downtown and the University of Washington, into an exciting biotech research community with a mix of housing, office, R&D, and retail space. To help create this new community, BAE studied models from around the U.S. that have provided the best mix of neighborhood amenities, housing types, and live-work environments. BAE profiled research regarding urban neighborhood lifestyles, as well as public policies that have worked to attract life science research companies and workers.

Economic Analysis for Congestion Management Plan
Santa Cruz County, CA
BAE analyzed the costs of implementing proposed Trip Reduction Ordinances for all jurisdictions in Santa Cruz County. The analysis included a literature review to establish administrative costs of the regulation for employers and local agencies, assessment of impacts on future economic growth, and recommendations for joint operating agreements to implement the Plan.

Municipal Program and Budget Evaluation for the Berkeley General Plan
City of Berkeley, CA
This project represented a unique effort to directly implement the General Plan through the budgeting process. Because Berkeley is a relatively built-out community, its most recent General Plan sought to integrate city programs aimed at improving the quality of life. BAE compiled city budget data by program area, analyzed the cost-effectiveness of programs across functional areas as they related to General Plan goals, and developed benchmarks for future program evaluation.

Strategic Assessment of Brownfields/Land Recycling Program
The James Irvine Foundation
As part of its Sustainable Communities initiative, The James Irvine Foundation funds organizations active in brownfields and land recycling; these organizations, in turn, are actively engaged in regulatory, pre-development, and partnership activities related to brownfield redevelopment. The Foundation commissioned BAE to assess its grant program in order to identify areas for targeted funding. BAE interviewed grantees, profiled the history of the grant program, reviewed all grant activities (including subgrants to more than 25 brownfields projects), and researched innovative programs around the U.S. BAE also interviewed key informants in California organizations active in sustainable development, farmland preservation, smart growth, and new urbanism to identify program activities that would expand the Foundation’s goals.

Windsor General Plan & Housing Element Components
Town of Windsor, CA
BAE completed the fiscal impact, housing element, and market forecasting portions of the first General Plan for this newly-incorporated community, which was transitioning from a traditional "bedroom community" to a more diversified economy with a mix of land uses and activities. In addition to the technical components of this Plan, BAE advised the General Plan Advisory Committee as it explored alternative visions of the Town's future.

Circleville Farms Traditional Neighborhood Development Plan
Pennsylvania State University, PA
Circleville Farms is a university-owned experimental farm and open space parcel surrounded by suburban developments. In order to reuse the site, the university embarked on an extensive planning process, creating a conceptual plan with mixed residential product types, community facilities, a Town Center, and preserved open space. BAE conducted a market and financial feasibility analysis of the concept plan, including review of competitive supply and demographic trends, faculty surveys to test market acceptance of small lot and clustered multifamily units, and cash flow analysis of potential return to private developers.

Southport Framework Plan for Traditional Neighborhood Development
City of West Sacramento, CA
BAE provided the economic analysis for the Framework Plan, an innovative effort to plan for over 7,000 acres of undeveloped land in West Sacramento. The process involved a design competition among four land planning/design firms with distinct styles including traditional neighborhood design. BAE’s work included fiscal impact analysis and an analysis of the marketability of "new urbanist" communities across the U.S. compared to more typical subdivisions.

Sunnyvale Growth Management Business Forums
City of Sunnyvale, CA
For this highly desirable Silicon Valley community, BAE organized and facilitated a series of events bringing together experts in housing, transportation, land use, and education to discuss ways to accommodate growth pressures. The Growth Management Forums were designed to provide intensive debate and policy review in a short time period, allowing residents and business leaders to explore density, sustainability, smart growth, traffic, affordable housing, and fiscal issues facing the City.

Citywide Sustainability Strategy
City of Long Beach, CA
This redeveloping southern California community engaged BAE to create a strategy implementing the City’s sustainable development policies related to green purchasing, green building, and sustainable land use planning. BAE convened a series of workshops with city department heads to explore other cities’ approaches, Long Beach’s own practices, and formulate new implementation procedures. BAE also convened workshops with local builders and architect to discuss green building practices that the City could adopt for its own facilities. The work culminated in a Sustainability Strategy adopted by City Council.

Sacramento Regional Smart Growth Vision
Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG), CA
BAE assisted this regional planning agency with a major regional visioning initiative to explore alternative smart growth patterns. BAE provided inputs for PLACES³, a real time model of the region, for use during public workshops. BAE’s work included inventorying variable development costs, impact fees, and sale prices/rental rates across the region.

Jobs/Housing Balance Analysis for General Plan
City of Davis, CA
To support the update of the Davis General Plan, BAE analyzed the community's current and future jobs/housing balance. The study focused on the relationship between local economic growth and housing demand. BAE also evaluated regional commute patterns and the fit between local job opportunities and housing. This involved analyzing the match between types of local jobs, residents’ skills, resulting local workers’ household incomes, and local housing costs. The City used the study to determine the amount of residential land designated in the General Plan that would support job growth in Davis, and to develop policies to reduce the incidence of in- and out-commuting.

Segmented Housing Needs Analysis
City of Davis, CA
BAE developed an innovative segmentation of future housing needs for this community experiencing extremely strong housing demand due to a variety of factors. Davis is home to an expanding university campus, and is also a highly-desired residential community within the Sacramento regional commute-shed. The City has carefully managed its growth to accommodate a balance of housing needs required to maintain a diverse economy, while also ensuring that the University of California supply housing needed for its own expansion. BAE segmented each aspect of future housing demand, including out-commuters, local service workers, students, and faculty, in order to estimate the portion of demand to be addressed by City land planning. BAE also analyzed existing unmet community housing needs and researched potential workforce housing programs.

Brownfield Site Reuse Strategy
City of Davis, CA
BAE worked with a team of consultants and the City of Davis to develop a reuse plan for a U.S. EPA Superfund site. The former agricultural fertilizer sales facility offered an infill opportunity to create a mixed-use project, achieving the City’s economic development goals. BAE identified real estate market opportunities for future site development, and considered compatibility with anticipated on-going site clean-up, overall City objectives, and neighborhood concerns.

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