For more than 10 years, BAE Urban Economics has administered the annual Davis Apartment Vacancy and Rental Rate Survey on behalf of UC Davis Student Housing and Dining Services, which is in its 50^th annual iteration.  The results, recently reported by the Davis Vanguard, highlight a notable shift in the Davis rental housing market, including the first decline in average rents in more than a decade.

Key Findings from the 2025 Survey

• Average Rent Declined: The blended average monthly rent for market-rate apartments in Davis decreased 1.8%, falling from $2,762 in fall 2024 to $2,711 in fall 2025.

• Vacancy Rate: The blended vacancy rate across all rental types was 3.5%, slightly below the 4.0% reported in the prior year.

• Survey Coverage: Responses were collected from 111 apartment complexes and property management companies, representing 10,917 rental units—approximately 84% of the Davis multifamily housing stock.

Detailed Rent and Vacancy Trends

• Unit-Leased Apartments: Weighted average rents for apartments leased by the unit declined 4.8%. Two-bedroom units averaged $2,303 per month.
• Bed-Leased Apartments: Rents for bed-leased units increased modestly (+4.7%), reflecting changes in occupancy patterns.
• Rent Adjustments: 51% of survey respondents reported rent decreases in 2025, compared to 30% in 2024.

Supply Conditions and Leasing Incentives

• Leasing Incentives: 59 apartment complexes offered move-in incentives in 2025—approximately 35% more than in 2024.
• On-Campus Housing Growth: Since 2017, UC Davis has added more than 6,260 new apartment and residence hall beds. Approximately 41% of Davis-based students now live on campus, up from roughly 29% a decade ago.

Project Impact

The 2025 survey results mark a meaningful milestone in the Davis rental market. Through rigorous data collection and analysis, BAE Urban Economics provided UC Davis and community stakeholders with comprehensive, market-wide insights. The findings demonstrate that sustained housing supply expansion, particularly new on-campus housing coupled with robust market rate development in the community, is contributing to improved market balance and rent stabilization throughout the broader Davis community.

BAE Urban Economics is proud to have supported the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA), the Tahoe Truckee Community Foundation (TTCF), and a broad coalition of regional partners in the preparation of the 2025 Tahoe Housing Needs Assessment and Survey Report and the 2025 North Tahoe-Truckee Housing Needs Assessment. These studies provide a comprehensive analysis of housing supply, affordability challenges, and workforce housing needs across the Tahoe Basin and North Tahoe–Truckee region, informed by extensive data analysis and community input. The reports are intended to support regional collaboration and guide local governments, employers, and community organizations in developing effective strategies to address housing availability and affordability in one of California’s most economically and environmentally significant mountain regions.

Listen to BAE Principal Aaron Nousaine discuss housing issues with Placer County on 101.5 Truckee Tahoe Radio.

San Francisco, like many North American cities, is pursuing new strategies to revitalize its Downtown amid persistent office vacancies, including creating new tools to incentivize housing production.  In support of these efforts, BAE prepared a technical and financial analysis to support the formulation and adoption of the City and County of San Francisco’s Downtown Revitalization and Economic Recovery District, signed into law by Mayor Daniel Lurie on February 12, 2026.

Enabled by Assembly Bill 2488, the Revitalization District provides property tax incentives to encourage the conversion of vacant and underutilized Downtown office and commercial buildings into housing across portions of the Market Street corridor, the Financial District, Union Square, the East Cut, Rincon Hill, and Yerba Buena.

For this District Financing Plan, BAE developed a data-driven methodology to identify candidate buildings and estimate the potential scale of conversion activity, including the range of commercial square footage and housing units that could result. The team also considered development economics, projected 30-year property tax increment, and prepared a comprehensive fiscal impact analysis assessing changes in City General Fund revenues and service costs.

The work provided City decision-makers with a clear understanding of the economic and fiscal implications of advancing large-scale Downtown housing conversions as part of San Francisco’s long-term revitalization strategy.

In November 2024, the Urban Land Institute (ULI) convened an Advisory Services Panel to support revitalization of Buffalo’s historic Jefferson Avenue Corridor.  Sherry Okun-Rudnak, Principal at BAE Urban Economics, served as a panelist, contributing strategic economic insight and implementation guidance to help align investment with community priorities.

Following an intensive week of engagement with more than 90 residents, business owners, and civic leaders, the panel concluded that the corridor’s core challenge was not a lack of funding, but a lack of coordination and shared leadership.  The panel recommended a framework centered on strategic connectivity, governance, and communications.

One year later, ULI reports tangible progress is underway.  Local leaders have launched the Jefferson Renaissance Initiative to coordinate corridor-wide revitalization efforts and pursue nonprofit status, startup capital, and a development-ready property database.  In parallel, private stakeholders and business owners have advanced the Buffalo Black Business District Initiative, building momentum toward a more vibrant, community-led commercial corridor.

BAE is pleased to announce that its project for the City of Redondo Beach, the "Artesia & Aviation Corridors Area Plan" has won the 2022 APA Los Angeles Section Economic Planning + Development Award.  BAE served as the Land Use Economist on PlaceWorks' team, along with Fehr & Peers, who provided transportation planning.  Congratulations to our client and team for this victory! 

BAE's client, the City of Portland, OR is in the news for its inclusionary housing policy. The City retained BAE to evaluate the extent to which the policy impacts development feasibility and identify methods for promoting affordable housing growth.  Read more here: https://www.opb.org/article/2023/07/13/affordable-housing-portland/

BAE's client, the City of Portland, OR is in the news for its discussions around the impacts of infrastructure costs on housing development.  The City is looking at all of its mandated fees and requirements associated with housing development to identify those that can be adjusted to make housing more affordable to build.  You can read more here: https://bikeportland.org/2023/07/27/a-revealing-exchange-about-funding-from-city-council-work-session-377616

Watch the Council Housing Production Work Session here:  https://www.portland.gov/council-clerk/events/2023/7/25/housing-production-work-session

 See BAE's findings here:  https://www.portland.gov/phb/documents/ih-calibration-study-meeting-7-findings-slide-deck/download

BAE's client, the Town of Truckee, CA is in the news for working to create a Below Market Rate (BMR) Housing Program to help create more affordable housing units within its boundaries in north Lake Tahoe.  BAE has assisted the Town in working on housing issues in a variety of ways over the years, including evaluating seasonal housing needs, potential housing policies and programs, and the economic evaluation of specific housing projects.  The article can be found at this link:  https://www.sierrasun.com/news/a-look-ahead-at-housing-in-the-truckee-area/

BAE's client, the City of Antioch, CA is in the news for creating flexibility to allow housing on underutilized commercial sites.  BAE assisted the City in identifying the potential sites and estimating the amount of new housing that the sites could accommodate.  The article can be found at this link: https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/03/17/east-bay-city-considers-rezoning-underused-commercial-properties-for-housing/

BAE Urban Economics was in the news at Informed Infrastructure.  BAE is part of the Arup advisory team selected as its financial and procurement advisor.  BAE's role will be to provide advisory services related to real estate portions of the procurement.

BAE principal Sherry Okun-Rudnak stated, "it's exciting to be part of such an amazing team, working on this important project."  

The full article can be seen at the following link:
https://informedinfrastructure.com/43308/arup-selected-as-financial-advisor-to-support-procurement-efforts-for-los-angeles-street-civic-building/

BAE Urban Economics is in the news for its Tempe, AZ affordable housing strategy.  BAE is leading an affordable housing strategy for the city as part of a larger Urban Core Master Plan.  The Strategy focuses on how Tempe can address housing affordability challenges resulting from gentrification and reduced affordability.

The news article can be found at the following link:
http://www.statepress.com/article/2018/11/spmagazine-tempe-a-history-of-gentrification

BAE Urban Economics is in the news for its work on the Moab, UT assured housing policy work.  BAE conducted a financial feasibility analysis to determine the extent to which new residential and commercial developments can help pay fees to be used for affordable and workforce housing.  BAE also conducted a nexus study to determine the extent to which new development creates demand for new affordable and workforce housing.

The article can be found at the following link:
http://www.moabtimes.com/view/full_story/27604601/article-City---Committed-to-affordable-housing-Hiring--housing-to-go-hand-in-hand-?instance=home_news_2nd_left

BAE Urban Economics is in the news for its farmworker housing analysis.  BAE conducted a farmworker housing needs assessment for San Mateo County, finding that a lack of housing is negatively impacting farmers' ability to attract and retain workers.  Following these findings, the County prioritized developing affordable farmworker housing, and is unveiling a new development.  

The original article can be found at the following link:
https://www.hmbreview.com/news/farmworker-housing-opens-in-south/article_baa90512-c1c9-11e8-900b-d7cbb6a58eb2.html

BAE Urban Economics is in the news for its economic impact analysis of the Mare Island Dry Dock (MIDD) in Vallejo, CA.  The MIDD received a $15 million Navy contract, and continues to provide a strong economic engine in Vallejo.   

https://www.timesheraldonline.com/2018/05/09/vallejos-mare-island-dry-dock-receives-15-million-contract-for-ship-repair/

BAE Urban Economics is in the news for its City of Napa Hospitality Worker Housing Demand analysis.  Working with Cushman Wakefield hotel demand forecasts, BAE reviewed the availability of local labor and access to affordable housing to determine the impacts of new Napa hotels on local housing needs.

In response to the analysis, City Council is weighing policies for increasing TOT to be used for affordable housing programs.

The article can be found at the following link: 
https://napavalleyregister.com/news/local/forecast-of-napa-hotel-growth-brings-housing-worries/article_914d2101-b978-5ec2-9485-ff8970beda9f.html

The Northern California Chapter of APA awarded two BAE projects with 2018 Chapter awards:

The 2018 Award of Merit, Implementation Plan Small Jurisdiction was awarded to the Walnut Creek Shadelands Gateway Specific Plan.  BAE Urban Economics served as the real estate economist on a planning team headed by RRM Design Group.

The 2018 Award of Excellence, Comprehensive Plan Large Jurisdiction was awarded to City of Vallejo's General Plan 2040 Propel Vallejo.  BAE Urban Economics served as the real estate economist and economic development advisor on a planning team led by PlaceWorks.

The California State Chapter awarded another BAE project: The City of Sacramento's Central City Specific Plan with the 2018 Economic Planning and Development Award.  BAE served as the real estate economist on a planning team led by Environmental Science Associates (ESA).  

The Santa Clara County and Santa Clara County Open Space District were awarded the 2018 Governor’s Environmental and Economic Leadership Award (GEELA) in the category of Ecosystem & Land Use Stewardship for the Santa Clara Valley Agricultural Plan.  As part of a larger consulting team, BAE provided input regarding land economics and agricultural economic development.  

BAE Urban Economics has been selected to prepare an Economic Feasibility Study for the town of Smithsburg, MD.  BAE competed against seven other firms for this project.  "We are excited to do this work for a community in one of our local regions," stated Mary Burkholder, BAE Vice President and Washington, DC office lead. 

The full article can be seen at the following link:
https://www.heraldmailmedia.com/news/local/smithsburg-decides-on-consultant-to-conduct-economic-study/article_262ceec2-fa38-5b99-8c6e-4aaa8b05c0fc.html

BAE is in the news for Principal Sherry Okun-Rudnak's participation in Bisnow's annual Oakland State of the Market event.  Sherry moderated a panel on Opportunity Zones, discussing the potential of opportunity zones to bring new investment to Oakland, the potential to support local small businesses, and programs the City is implementing to promote equitable and inclusive outcomes and minimize displacement. The original article can be found at the following link:  https://www.bisnow.com/oakland/news/opportunity-zones/the-challenge-of-broadening-oaklands-opportunity-zone-development-99451

The City of Long Beach opened the doors to newly completed and occupied City Hall and Port Headquarters.  The public/private partnership (P3 Project) was completed by Plenary Edgemoor Civic Partners.  BAE staff worked as part of a larger consulting team in drafting the RFP, evaluating developer solicitations, and negotiating with the selected developer.  We are pleased that the first two buildings of the project have been delivered and look forward to seeing the new Main Library, Lincoln Park, and private development come to fruition.  

BAE is in the news for work performed as part of creating the City of South Fulton, GA's first Economic Development Strategic Plan.  As part of this assignment, BAE assisted the city in evaluating different locations for a new city hall that would act as the heart of the City, providing its citizens with a space to gather.  The original article can be found at the following link:  https://www.ajc.com/news/local/new-city-south-fulton-considers-massive-city-hall-development/eqSXCQidJXlecVLbw4nwhI/

BAE is in the news for work performed as part of a housing needs assessment and strategy for the City of Dallas, TX.  Like most cities in the U.S., Dallas residents are experiencing a tight housing market as job growth outpaces housing growth.  As part of its study, BAE identified the need for housing going forward and evaluated the efficacy of potential programs to help meet the growing housing need.  The article can be found at this link:  https://www.dallasobserver.com/news/dallas-growing-job-market-not-covering-housing-costs-11958477

BAE's client, the California Department of General Services is in the news for breaking ground on the first housing development following Governor Newsom's 2019 directive to build housing on underutilized state land.  BAE assisted DGS in writing the developer solicitation for the site, evaluating developer proposals, and developer negotiations.  BAE is currently providing development advisory services for affordable housing projects to Alameda County, the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA), Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (LA Metro), Los Angeles County, and the CA Department of General Services (DGS). The article can be found at this link:  https://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/news/2021/06/04/cada-cfy-kick-off-sonrisa-downtown-housing-project.html?ana=TRUEANTHEMFB_SA&csrc=6398&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A%20New%20Content%20(Feed)&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0fnuY2uYvctoWuZmTzVHtUW9MHCHfICFjO8l3BY0OhLZ9Coj3VoNNhO-w

BERKELEY, Calif.—BAE Urban Economics, a real estate, economics, and economic development advisory firm, today announced new ownership for the company.

Widely known as BAE (the initials of the company’s original name, Bay Area Economics), Matt Kowta and David Shiver now own all outstanding company stock, with Kowta serving as president and managing principal. With a commitment to the long-term employees who have helped build BAE, the company plans to add additional ownership participation by existing BAE staff in the coming year.

Kowta and Shiver have been with BAE since the early 1990s and became shareholders in 1996. While Kowta oversees company operations throughout the U.S., they continue to function as principals in charge of the company’s Sacramento region and San Francisco Bay area offices, respectively.

The new ownership coincides with the retirement of founder Janet Smith-Heimer, who launched BAE in July 1986. For the next three decades, Smith-Heimer nurtured the company from a startup based in her East Bay home into the highly-regarded, award-winning national organization it is today.

Entering the “BAE 3.0” Era

Kowta explained the company has dubbed the new ownership “BAE 3.0,” a reference to two previous changes in the company’s primary ownership.

“‘BAE 1.0’ refers to the genesis of the company that Janet launched in 1986, later adding Dena Belzer as a partner,” said Kowta. “‘BAE 2.0’ refers to the era from when David Shiver and I became shareholders and Dena left the company, through 2016. With this latest ownership transition, we have embarked on the ‘BAE 3.0’ era.”

Kowta further explained the reason for the new label is partly to identify the new ownership, but also to express a continuation of the company’s emphasis on the “triple bottom-line of economics, equity and environment.”

“Aside from the new ownership, BAE is very much the same company that we’ve been—which is to say that we will continue the tradition of providing the world-class urban economics consulting and real estate advisory services for which we’ve become known.”

Although the company’s name is rooted in our significant involvement with San Francisco Bay area clients—including the Port of San Francisco, Golden Gate National Recreation Area, NASA Ames Research Center and dozens of municipalities, institutions, and organizations within the region—BAE maintains a strong presence throughout California and nationwide, including its assignments for clients such as the City of Los Angeles, City of Sacramento, Charlotte Housing Authority in North Carolina, Fort Monroe Authority in Hampton, Virginia, and the City of New York.

“Speaking for the entire company, we look forward to BAE’s promising future,” said Kowta. “We are truly passionate about what we do and are grateful for the encouragement we’ve already received from our clients.”